Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.
Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process
Multiple figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.