A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
