Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Drop Over a Third During President Sheinbaum, As per Official Data

The average figure of per-day killings per month in Mexico has dropped by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by fresh official figures. Nevertheless, public safety experts have warned that homicide numbers may not point to better national safety.

Significant Reduction in Daily Figures

There was an average of almost 55 killings a day in last November versus almost 87 when the President assumed the presidency in September. This announcement was shared by the director of the nation's national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that we have seen in these past months is very notable,” Sheinbaum said, adding that last month the smallest figure of murders were documented for any single November in the last decade.

Recent Context and Official Strategy

Fierce drug cartel infighting, alongside the administration's heavily militarised efforts to combat the cartels, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in the past few years. The rate reached a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a murder figure over four times higher than that of the United States. From that point, killings have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 last year. The President has linked her public safety approach for an seemingly steeper drop in killings this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the head of state said: “We have a plan, we have tracking of the plan, and we have specific monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The approach is effective. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The key elements of the President's security strategy include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Enhanced cooperation between government departments.

Analyst Caution and Data Concerns

But, security analysts warned that relying on homicide statistics to assess the situation of improved security was problematic. This is notably true given the increase in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“That would be very good news if this were a drop, but I think we must not just look at the homicide data and think: ‘Well then, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously positive.”

According to the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the identical period last year. But, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not useful for gauging the reality of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who lack the capacity or the desire to properly recognize and classify remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the capability to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that relying on monthly averages of everyday killings was also an issue because it may obscure days when there were notably elevated levels of murders.

“Using the daily mean renders surges of violence less visible,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Progress

An area where the administration can cite the success of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 people were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact offenses, per official data. Over 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Frustration

However despite these actions, Mexico continues to be plagued by high violence, with several regions in the grip of cartel-related conflict. Last month there was a high-profile killing of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the last year.

A short time later, thousands of young people demonstrated in the capital and across the nation to express their anger at graft and narco-violence.

“The government frames [data] in a way to build a narrative of safety. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, socially it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst remarked.